中日韩中文字幕无码亚_價(jià)格高企，如何認識全球天然氣市場(chǎng)基本面-行業(yè)新聞-荊門(mén)市潔能環(huán)?？萍加邢薰?荊門(mén)市潔能環(huán)?？萍加邢薰?/title> <meta name="keywords" content="荊門(mén)潔能加氣站、荊門(mén)市潔能環(huán)?？萍加邢薰?、潔能加氣站、石化產(chǎn)品、城市燃氣;雙燃料改裝配件;Ⅱ、Ⅲ類(lèi)醫療器械銷(xiāo)售;機電;機械加工及配件銷(xiāo)售;電腦網(wǎng)絡(luò )工程等" /> <meta name="description" content="對于天然氣市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，2021年是非同尋常的一年。去年年初以來(lái)，在全球疫情緩和的背景下，全球經(jīng)濟持續復蘇，天然氣需求增長(cháng)超過(guò)預期，供需已突破周期性規律，三大市場(chǎng)氣價(jià)大幅上漲至歷史新高。2022年，全球天然氣市場(chǎng)將如何演變？本期《石油時(shí)評》特邀睿咨得能源公司副總裁、LNG市場(chǎng)負責人南溪，就全球LNG供需情況、價(jià)格變化" /> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0"> <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0, maximum-scale=1.0, user-scalable=no"> <meta content="yes" name="apple-mobile-web-app-capable"> <meta content="black" name="apple-mobile-web-app-status-bar-style"> <meta content="email=no" name="format-detection"> <link href="/skin/css/pintuer.css" rel="stylesheet"/> <link href="/skin/css/style.css" 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src="/skin/images/about.jpg" alt="價(jià)格高企，如何認識全球天然氣市場(chǎng)基本面" style="max-width:100%;"/> </div>  <div id="axn0tm0x" class="layout bg-gray margin-big-bottom"> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="container"> <ul class="bread"> <li><a href="/">首頁(yè)</a>>><a href="/a/news/">新聞中心</a>>><a href="/a/news/xingyexinwen/">行業(yè)新聞</a></li> </ul> </div> </div> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="layout padding-big-top padding-big-bottom"> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="container padding-big-bottom"> <h1 class="padding-big-bottom text-center">價(jià)格高企，如何認識全球天然氣市場(chǎng)基本面</h1> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="container padding news-line"> 發(fā)布時(shí)間：2022-02-09 14:29:41 </div> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="news-body"> <p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">對于天然氣市場(chǎng)來(lái)說(shuō)，2021年是非同尋常的一年。去年年初以來(lái)，在全球疫情緩和的背景下，全球經(jīng)濟持續復蘇，天然氣需求增長(cháng)超過(guò)預期，供需已突破周期性規律，三大市場(chǎng)氣價(jià)大幅上漲至歷史新高。2022年，全球天然氣市場(chǎng)將如何演變？本期《石油時(shí)評》特邀睿咨得能源公司副總裁、LNG市場(chǎng)負責人南溪，就全球LNG供需情況、價(jià)格變化、歐洲能源危機等市場(chǎng)關(guān)注熱點(diǎn)問(wèn)題進(jìn)行展望分析。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">歐洲天然氣市場(chǎng)將于2022年實(shí)現緊平衡，TTF將繼續成為全球市場(chǎng)主導定價(jià)者。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">全球LNG需求將從2021年的3.85億噸上升到今年的4.15億噸，中國將成為全球最大LNG進(jìn)口國。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">全球LNG供應將出現反彈，美國將成為全球最大LNG出口國。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">1、2022年歐洲天然氣市場(chǎng)走勢如何？</strong></p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">預計天然氣價(jià)格持續高企將抑制歐洲天然氣需求增長(cháng)，該地區2022年天然氣呈現緊平衡，需求預計達5230億立方米，與2021年基本持平。為了滿(mǎn)足需求，在挪威和英國增加供應的推動(dòng)下，歐洲2022年產(chǎn)量預計將增加90億立方米。荷蘭還將格羅寧哥氣田天然氣產(chǎn)量從39億立方米提高到76億立方米。儲氣庫對歐洲平衡季節性天然氣價(jià)差和保證冬季供應至關(guān)重要。歐洲要想使儲氣庫庫存水平恢復到5年平均水平，就需要在今年北半球夏季 (5月至10月) 注入大約250億立方米天然氣。因此歐洲買(mǎi)家可能會(huì )在整個(gè)夏季向儲氣庫注氣，以提高庫存水平，避免2021年第四季度的價(jià)格環(huán)境重現。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">這需要大量進(jìn)口LNG和俄羅斯管道氣，今年歐洲LNG進(jìn)口量將增加約180億立方米，對LNG依賴(lài)度上升意味著(zhù)該地區今年將繼續是全球主導的定價(jià)者，LNG現貨溢價(jià)高于亞洲。由于俄羅斯通過(guò)既定路線(xiàn)輸送的管道氣量仍存在不確定性以及“北溪-2”天然氣管道投運方面的政治僵局，再加上最近俄羅斯和烏克蘭緊張的地緣政治形勢，歐洲對LNG的需求有可能進(jìn)一步提高。此外，由于阿爾及利亞與摩洛哥的過(guò)境協(xié)議到期，西班牙將不得不采購足夠的LNG來(lái)抵消供應。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">2、哪些國家/地區將引領(lǐng)全球LNG需求增長(cháng)？</strong></p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">睿咨得能源預計，全球LNG需求將從2021年的3.85億噸上升到今年的4.15億噸。這意味著(zhù)，如果所有預期產(chǎn)量均按承諾交付，全球LNG市場(chǎng)將達到緊平衡。今年中國將成為全球最大的LNG進(jìn)口國，預計LNG需求將達到8700萬(wàn)噸，日本LNG需求可能會(huì )保持不變，仍為7500萬(wàn)噸。在歐洲，天然氣價(jià)格飆升和供應緊張促使一些發(fā)電廠(chǎng)在冬季轉向燃煤發(fā)電，預計該地區2022年天然氣需求將達到8100萬(wàn)噸，但這取決于冬季需求、冬季結束時(shí)的庫存水平和俄羅斯管道氣供應量。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">預計2022年南亞LNG需求將增長(cháng)，盡管該地區的需求潛力將繼續受到LNG現貨價(jià)格高企的制約，除非價(jià)格跌破20美元/百萬(wàn)英熱，南亞買(mǎi)家不會(huì )在現貨市場(chǎng)采購LNG。今年印度國內LNG產(chǎn)量或將增長(cháng)3%，其LNG進(jìn)口量或僅略高于2021年的2300萬(wàn)噸。由于與卡塔爾簽訂了新的長(cháng)期供應合同，巴基斯坦和孟加拉國LNG進(jìn)口量也可能會(huì )出現小幅增長(cháng)。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">3、今年將有多少LNG供應增量涌入市場(chǎng)？</strong></p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">受疫情影響，2021年一些項目暫時(shí)停產(chǎn)，新項目推遲投產(chǎn)。預計今年全球LNG供應將出現反彈，同比增7.7%。在2022年全球將增加的3000萬(wàn)噸LNG供應中，預計一半來(lái)自新投產(chǎn)項目，另一半來(lái)自現有項目。新增供應的很大一部分將來(lái)自于美國新的LNG出口項目、產(chǎn)能利用率提高以及現有項目復產(chǎn)。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">今年美國有望成為全球最大的LNG出口國，預計美國LNG出口量將達8300萬(wàn)噸，澳大利亞和卡塔爾分別為7800萬(wàn)噸和7700萬(wàn)噸。</strong>全球LNG處理廠(chǎng)的平均利用率將從2021年的80%升至2022年的84%，這主要得益于美國LNG出口項目產(chǎn)量的增加。2022年即將投產(chǎn)兩個(gè)美國項目為：Venture Global公司的新Calcasieu Pass LNG項目以及Cheniere能源公司的Sabine Pass LNG項目第6條生產(chǎn)線(xiàn)（<strong style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">2月初已經(jīng)投產(chǎn)-能源情報注</strong>）。到2022年底，印尼唐古LNG項目第3條生產(chǎn)線(xiàn)和莫桑比克Coral South浮式LNG項目將投產(chǎn)。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">現有項目將有大約1500萬(wàn)噸新LNG產(chǎn)量進(jìn)入市場(chǎng)。挪威遭火災破壞的Snohvit LNG項目將于2022年第二季度復產(chǎn)，將帶來(lái)310萬(wàn)噸供應；尼日利亞LNG項目在2021年一直應對原料氣問(wèn)題，該問(wèn)題解決后將恢復300萬(wàn)噸產(chǎn)量。阿爾及利亞、埃及、澳大利亞和秘魯減產(chǎn)的項目恢復生產(chǎn)后，會(huì )帶來(lái)約900萬(wàn)噸的LNG供應量。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">2022年新一波LNG項目的FID浪潮將達3400萬(wàn)噸/年。今年即將作出最終投資決定（FID）的新LNG出口能力主要在北美，包括Plaquemines LNG出口項目、Corpus Christi 第三期項目、Woodfibre LNG出口項目和Driftwood LNG項目。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"><strong style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">4、歐亞兩地天然氣價(jià)格將如何變化？</strong></p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">隨著(zhù)亞洲現貨價(jià)格與歐洲天然氣價(jià)格基準荷蘭所有權轉讓中心（TTF）價(jià)格趨同，2021年12月歐洲天然氣價(jià)格飆升至空前的39美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位高點(diǎn)，希望2022年天然氣價(jià)格更加穩定的消費者可能會(huì )失望。影響今年現貨價(jià)格變化的因素包括歐洲天然氣市場(chǎng)平衡、深冬儲氣庫庫存水平，俄羅斯對歐洲管道氣出口水平以及天氣情況。歐洲和亞洲現貨LNG（TTF和JKM）之間又將出現密切相關(guān)的一年，TTF將繼續是主導的定價(jià)者。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">當然，如果歐洲和亞洲北半球冬季天氣比預期溫和，再加上俄羅斯通過(guò)現有管道和/或“北溪-2”管道對歐洲天然氣供應恢復，那么可能會(huì )對當前的遠期價(jià)格構成下行風(fēng)險。在這種情況下，天然氣價(jià)格可能會(huì )跌至可以從與石油掛鉤的長(cháng)期LNG合約價(jià)格或煤—氣轉換（從煤炭轉向天然氣）價(jià)格中獲得支撐的水平。天然氣價(jià)格最終是否會(huì )跌至歐洲當前煤—氣轉換價(jià)格或與布倫原油價(jià)格掛鉤的長(cháng)期LNG合約價(jià)格以下，尚待分曉。</p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);"> </p><p style="padding: 0px 0px 10px; margin-top: 0px; margin-bottom: 0px; color: rgb(51, 51, 51); font-family: "Microsoft YaHei", Tahoma, Geneva, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-align: justify; white-space: normal; background-color: rgb(255, 255, 255);">北半球2022年夏季，與布倫特原油價(jià)格掛鉤的長(cháng)期LNG合約交易價(jià)格約為13美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位，而歐洲煤—氣轉換價(jià)格在10-17美元/百萬(wàn)英熱單位。歐洲不斷上漲的碳價(jià)格支撐了天然氣價(jià)格上漲時(shí)的天然氣需求，但目前TTF遠期交易價(jià)格明顯高于煤—氣轉換價(jià)格。睿咨得能源預計，今冬剩余時(shí)間內，地下儲氣庫庫存水平支持現貨溢價(jià)，但遠期來(lái)看，價(jià)格上漲不可持續。</p><p><br/></p> </p> </div> </div> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="container padding-big"> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="xl12 xs12 xm6 xb6"><a href="/a/news/xingyexinwen/53.html">創(chuàng )出多個(gè)紀錄的2021年世界天然氣市場(chǎng)</a></div> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="xl12 xs12 xm6 xb6 text-right"><a href="/a/news/xingyexinwen/59.html">LNG液化天然氣安全使用說(shuō)明</a></div> </div> </div>  <div id="axn0tm0x" class="layout padding-big-top padding-big-bottom bg-gray"> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="container padding-big-top padding-big-bottom"> <h1 class="padding-bottom text-center">相關(guān)新聞推薦</h1> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="layout text-center"> </div> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="container padding-big"> <div id="axn0tm0x" class="xl12 xs12 xm6 xb6 newsitem padding-big-top"> 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